
I remember teaching in the aftermath of the 2000 presidential election between Al Gore and George W. Bush. I went to bed believing Gore had won, I awoke to news that the race was too close to call, and for weeks thereafter I taught under the Cloud of Unknowing, waiting for the other coup to drop.
In those days I was an adjunct instructor at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, NH. The adjunct in the basement office next to mine was a political science professor who has since earned tenure and moved onto greener pastures. (I, on the other hand, have simply moved on.) For weeks after the election, I overheard Professor Poli Sci talking on the phone with CNN and other news outlets, explaining again and again the intricacies of the electoral college and how it was possible for the loser of the popular vote to nevertheless win the White House.
Ever since 2000, I don’t believe preliminary election projections: it ain’t over until the race is officially called, the loser actually concedes, and all the votes are counted. And ever since 2016, I haven’t believed pre-election polls, either. For all the outspoken Trump and Biden supporters who wear their politics on their sleeves, there are the uncounted unknowns who don’t answer the phone when pollsters call or simply fib when asked directly about their vote.
Whereas in 2016 I felt crushed by a defeat I secretly feared but hadn’t emotionally prepared myself for, last night came as no surprise. Yes, I would have liked for early results to deliver a clear mandate against Donald Trump (or at least the state of Florida or Ohio). But this year I knew two things: Trump would win states with a history of voter suppression, and the result would be decided by a handful of swing states like Pennsylvania that are deeply divided between vocal Trump supporters, enthusiastic Biden supporters, and the untold enigmas who might vote either way.
Twenty years later, the lesson of 2000 still holds: it ain’t over until the race is officially called, the loser actually concedes, and all the votes are counted. In the meantime we wait, hope, and wonder what in the heck 2020 has in store for us next.
Nov 4, 2020 at 7:53 pm
I’ve thought of you quite a bit today, and wondered how you were feeling. i haven’t been surprised, though I was definitely disappointed. Like you say, it isn’t over until it’s over.
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Nov 4, 2020 at 9:13 pm
I taught in-person classes all day today, so that kept me busy and distracted. It’s impossible to stay glued to the news when you’re busy, so I’m grateful for that. Time will tell how this all turns out.
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Nov 6, 2020 at 7:16 am
I didn’t believe the polls either. Dave was very confident about them, saying that pollsters had corrected the methods that led to inaccuracies in 2016. But I was sure people (particularly Trump voters) were lying or not answering the phone — and although I don’t think we’ve heard yet what produced the skewed polls in this election cycle, I suspect that’s what it was.
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Nov 6, 2020 at 9:47 pm
I listened to a discussion on polls driving home today on NPR. They don’t know why they can’t get it right. They say that will not be able to really investigate until all the results are in. Once they know how much they were off, they will begin to back track to find out what was missed in their samples. I never realized how much went into assembling these polls. It was fascinating really. But they admit they got it wrong. Again. https://www.npr.org/2020/11/04/931435976/were-the-polls-wrong-a-look-at-the-future-of-the-polling-industry
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